5 Reasons Why Survival Specialists Incheon United Got Relegated
Incheon United were relegated for the first time in their history in the 37th Round of the 2024 K League Season - why?
The business end of the 2024 K League season is nearly complete. Only the ACL2 spot remains to be confirmed, along with the final positions in the pro/rel playoffs. Round 37 dealt the final blow to Incheon United’s survival hopes in a compelling encounter with Daejeon Hana Citizen, who secured their status with a win—their third in four games in the final split. Elsewhere in Final B, Gwangju FC also secured their spot with another lackluster 0-0 draw, and Jeonbuk’s win over a disappointing Daegu FC means they’ll take part in the K2/K1 playoffs in late November.
In Final A, meanwhile, Gimcheon staked their claim for second place by smashing Pohang 3-0. FC Seoul couldn’t overcome their Ulsan HD jinx, drawing 1-1 at home, while Suwon FC kept their ACL2 hopes alive by overpowering a flat Gangwon FC.
Incheon’s Fall
The past two seasons, 2022 and 2023, had given Incheon’s fans hope that their days of battling the annual threat of relegation were behind them. The remarkable 2022 campaign led to their first continental adventure in the ACL in 2023, where they came within a hair’s breadth of qualifying not only for the knockout phase but also for another shot at continental football in 2024. These two campaigns, highlighted by two spectacular victories over ACL finalists Yokohama Marinos, provided hope and excitement for the fans that the 2024 campaign would see further progression rather than regression, but that proved not to be.
1. Poor Season + Run-in
Funnily enough it was results that saw Incheon relegated, but more specifically it was their failure to put back-to-back results together, only once winning two games in a row, and that was the fourth and fifth games of the season.
Their season began relatively well, with Incheon spending some time near the top of the table. Even a heavy 4-1 defeat away to Gangwon FC in mid-April was followed by a clean sheet away to Pohang and then a 3-0 victory, their largest win of the season, at home over Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors. However, things started to take a downward turn after a heated Gyeongin Derby defeat at home to FC Seoul. Although they rebounded with a 1-0 win over a struggling Daejeon Hana Citizen, that would be their last victory for the next nine games. By the eighth game of this winless run, manager Cho Sung-hwan decided to resign, read as pushed to resigned, partly due to concerns that his defensive tactics had gone stale, though he left as arguably the club’s most successful manager.
Caretaker Byun Jae-sub stepped in, overseeing their Korea Cup exit and four league games, during which he won and drew one game each but lost his final two, including another defeat to rivals FC Seoul. Former assistant Choi Young-keun then took charge of the season’s final third, currently holding a record of three wins, two draws, and seven losses over twelve games.
Incheon’s poor home form proved critical; with only three home wins all season, they held the league's worst home record. In contrast, they had seven home wins in both 2023 and 2022. This poor home form persisted during the final stretch, where Incheon typically pulled off their miraculous escapes in the past, only to lose two of their last three home games, bringing their total home losses this season to eleven.
2. Lack of Goals
It’s rare for a team to be relegated while boasting the league’s top scorer, but Mugosa is set to achieve just that with one game remaining. The Montenegrin international even mentioned to reporters that he would gladly trade the scoring title for his team’s survival. Incheon’s scoring struggles were apparent this season; they managed just 35 goals—the lowest in the league, averaging less than a goal per game but only slightly behind seventh-placed Jeju, who scored 37. Their expected goals (xG) of 46.32 gave them the league’s worst xG deficit, as shown in last weekend’s match against Daejeon, where they lost 2-1 despite an xG of 2.01 compared to Daejeon’s 1.61. This overall xG deficit is mirrored in their expected points total, which was 49.6 compared to the 36 points they actually earned, underscoring how poor finishing cost them.
With Mugosa scoring 15 of the team’s goals and the next highest scorer, Gerso, with just five, Incheon struggled to spread the scoring load. Their main backup striker, Cheon Seong-hoon, was sold during the summer transfer window after failing to score in ten, mostly substitute, appearances. “Super Sub” Song Si-woo was also sidelined with injury issues and barely featured in the season’s crucial run-in. The statistics highlight another surprising shortcoming: Incheon’s inability to start games strongly, as they scored zero goals in the first 15 minutes all season—a stark contrast to the nine early goals they netted last season.
3. Managerial Change
When a tearful Cho Sung-hwan said goodbye to the club mid-season in early July, it came as a surprise that he even returned to management with Busan I’Park in K2 two weeks before Incheon appointed Choi Young-keun as his permanent replacement on August 1st. The hesitation in appointing a new manager and then selecting an unproven one, who immediately changed tactics and formation by switching to a four-man defense after Cho had employed a back three, raised questions. Initially, however, performances improved, with Incheon winning two of their first four games under Choi and narrowly losing 1-0 at home to Jeonbuk in a match they dominated. Their other defeat in that stretch came in the 96th minute after a miscommunication between substitute goalkeeper Min Seong-jun and young defender Kim Geon-hee.
Overall, Choi’s first month in charge wasn’t too bad, but their away win against Daegu FC on August 31st would be their last victory until October 27th, when they narrowly defeated Gwangju FC at home. During that five-game winless run, Incheon lost four times and only scored in two matches. Choi struggled, eventually abandoning his preferred tactics and reverting to Cho’s back-three system. There were signs from the sideline that he lacked a commanding presence, which may or may not tangibly affect team performance but it’s an easy stick to beat an inexperienced head coach with.
In round 37, playing at home against Daejeon, Incheon found themselves two goals down within the first 20 minutes. Choi immediately brought on Mun Ji-hwan and Kim Bo-seop from the bench, openly admitting the urgency required and perhaps the poor intial team selection. Surprisingly, his starting lineup had omitted Matej Jonjic, their major offseason signing, for tactical reasons, and Mun’s exclusion from the starting eleven also caught fans off guard. Another ongoing surprise has been the limited minutes for M’Poku, especially when the team needs creativity while chasing games; on this day, M’Poku came on in the 81st minute, with Incheon trailing 2-1 and on the brink of relegation.
Choi Young-keun has a contract for next season, but given his performance so far, allowing him to see it out would be a leap of faith. Incheon may learn from Suwon Bluewings, who retained the inexperienced Yeom Ki-hun at the start of their first K2 campaign, a decision that ultimately saw them miss the playoffs and a chance at immediate promotion. We’ll never know if Incheon could have avoided relegation by sticking with Cho Sung-hwan, who has since led Busan I’Park into the promotion playoffs.
4. Poor/lack of recruitment
Incheon United’s historic qualification for the Asian Champions League brought with it the promise of a boost to the finances. While an initial recruitment of Hernandes, Gerso, M’Poku, Cheon Seong-hun, the K League Best Xi 2022 Shin Jin-ho, and the return of Mugosa looked positive, and they were able to achieve a top half finish in 2023. The recruitment for the 2024 season was more notable for its exits and than additions. 33-year-olds Jonjic and Lee Bum-soo did nothing to lower the team’s average age and in the 2024 campaign they had the third oldest squad in the league with an average age of 29.3, though Ulsan HD did win the league with the oldest. Hernandes was sold to Jeonbuk and promising midfielder Park Hyun-bin moved to Bucheon in K2 in search of more football. While other 2023 signings Shin’s injury and integration problems continued, with Cheon was another out the door come the summer window. No additions to the squad in the summer proved costly with rivals Daejeon spending their way out of trouble. Although, Incheon don’t have the means to compete with that, the likes of Jeju United used loans and free transfers wisely to bring in Nam Tae-hee and Kaina Yoshio that would help see them prevent a slide down the table.
A huge overhaul in the squad is expected following relegation and with one of the largest squads in the league this could turn out for the best if they get the manager appointment and recruitment right….this time.
5. The Supporter Ban
The incident from the Gyeongin Derby and subsquent punishment, I believe, had it’s impact. The team failed to win during the five-game supporter ban under the main stand, managing only three draws and two losses. The ban, which restricted around 5,000 fans and silenced the main cheering section, affected both attendance numbers and the atmosphere in the stadium. When the ban was lifted, Incheon suffered another run of three home defeats, with a sense of gloom settling over the club.
To the surprise of many, attendance dropped further in round 34, with only half the number of fans attending the home game against Jeju United compared to the previous game against Gangwon FC, which drew just over 14,000. Overall, it has been a year to forget for Incheon’s home crowd, and it remains to be seen how many will return for their first campaign in K2.
